source CitizensReportUK.org Met Police FOI May 2013 and London Police and Crime Committee // – offence numbers are dependent on reports being made and recorded by the police

Highest Serious Youth Violence Boroughs are: Southwark, Croydon, Lambeth, Enfield and Barnet. The financial year 2012/13 saw very large reductions in overall Serious Youth Violence. Boroughs with the greatest reductions include Barking and Dagenham, Brent, Camden, Hackney, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham. Waltham Forest. There has also been reductions in London police numbers in 2012/13; the concern would be that less police may mean reporting of Serious Youth Violence rather than fewer incidences of Serious Youth Violence.

The Met police definition of Serious Youth Violence is any offence of Most Serious Violence or Weapon Enabled Crime, where the victim is aged 1 to 19

The Met police definition of Youth Violence is any offence of Most Serious Violence and Assault with Injury or Weapon Enabled Crime, where the victim is aged 1 to 19

London Teenage Murders 2005 to 2013

Most Serious Violence: Homicide and Child Destruction, Attempted Murder, Wounding or other act endangering life, Grievous Bodily Harm (Part), Causing Death by Dangerous/Careless/ Inconsiderate Driving, Causing Death by Aggravated Vehicle Taking.

Assault with injury: Actual Bodily Harm and other injury and racially or religiously aggravated ABH and other injury.

With a 20% reduction in London murders in 2012 (compared to 2011); 2012 could be the first time in over three decades that murders in London have been under a 100 in a year. Police reported crime data suggests 98 (maybe 99) murders in 2012 compared to around 120 in 2011. This has reduced London’s murder rate to 12.1 per million population (London population is 8,174,100) see London Murder page
Much has been said about potential police activities that have brought this number of murders down despite a growing London population and greater diversity in nationalities, religions, communities and cultures, but it is time we stop the cycle of thanking the police and authorities for crime reductions yet when crime goes up its everyone else’s fault. The evidence suggests that these massive reductions are a change in how individuals and communities in London view themselves and choose to conduct themselves, rather than a step change in policing.

So is this massive reduction in murder down to the police and the criminal justice system?

Are the murder reductions due to better Emergency Health Services?

No it’s probably time to face up to the fact that its probably time to hand the accolades and plaudits back to the communities in London for this massive reduction in murder rather than continually lauding police and statutory authorities.

Murders in England and Wales

Murders in England and Wales may possibly be under 500 in 2012, an annual reduction of over 10% expected when official figures are released.

Austerity UK means that Police numbers and funding are being cut, youth clubs and community crime services are closing. Stress within families is greater…. yet despite all this murders are reducing.
However these reductions are not entirely a surprise: murder volumes across the world are falling and recessions in the past have tended to bring along with them reductions in serious violent crime and murder, and increases in acquisitive crime – although the acquisitive crime increase in this recession hasn’t occurred in most parts of the UK.

Theories about crime, sentencing and police numbers are being blown out the water. It’s time for a few ideas about why we are seeing this crime reduction despite local and national services being cut.

Official data on violent crime in England and Wales to June 2012, is available on this link

While the level of stabbings – knife offences that have led to injury – has remained relatively unchanged with a 4% decrease from 2010-11 (4,133 offences) to 2011-12 (3,970 offences); it is likely that the 10% increase in personal robbery from 2010-11 (32,848 offences) to 2011-12 (36,138 offences) contributed to the increases in overall knife crime offences, as knives are regularly used to threaten and intimidate robbery victims.

Table of London Knife Crime Offences by Borough 2007 – 2012

source MPS 2012.

Knife Crime: All offences of Murder, attempted murder, threats to kill, manslaughter, infanticide, wounding or carrying out an act endangering life, GBH without intent, ABH and other injury, sexual assault, rape, robbery where a knife or sharp instrument (defined as any instrument that can pierce the skin) has been used.
Simple possession is excluded (For example, when a police search results in a discovery of possession of a weapon). Please note: data includes where a knife was ‘threatened but not seen’ from April 2008 onwards.

Table of London Knife Crime Offences that have caused Injury by Borough 2007 – 2011

source MPS 2012

Figures are dependent on offences that have been reported and recorded by the police.

The data provided on this table refers to where a knife has actually caused an injury to the victim. The previous knife crime offences tables on the citizensreportuk.org site included knife offences where a knife was either seen or spoken of to threaten a victim.

Knife offences With Injury:All offences of Murder, attempted murder, threats to kill, manslaughter, infanticide, wounding or carrying out an act endangering life, GBH without intent, ABH and other injury, sexual assault, rape, robbery where a knife or sharp instrument (defined as any instrument that can pierce the skin) has been used and caused injury.

The “Knife Crime with Injury” category may provide a better indicator of potentially lethal knife use, rather than “knife homicides” or “knife crime with serious injuries”. A wounding from a knife in a seemingly non-lethal area can very easily lead to severe and fatal consequences dependent on access to medical care and whether a major artery or organ has been damaged. The element of chance means that any knife wound is potentially lethal but luck and skill of health services has prevented many of these stabbing injuries leading to fatalities.

source MPS FOI 2012

Gun Crime Offences: Violence Against the Person, robbery, burglary and sexual offences in which a firearm (defined as a weapon covered by Firearms Acts 1968 to 1988 and excluding CS/pepper spray) are used.
Simple possession, without intent or lawful authority, is excluded (For example, when a police search results in a discovery of possession of a weapon). n.b Data includes where a gun was ‘threatened but not seen’ from April 2008 onwards.

source Met Police FOI 2012 and London Police and Crime Committee // – offence numbers are dependent on reports being made and recorded by the police

Highest Serious Youth Violence Boroughs are: Southwark, Lambeth, Newham and Enfield. These boroughs demonstrated some of the largest increases in Serious Youth Violence from 2008 to 2011, however the figures are coming in to the end of the 2011-2012 financial year and Enfield has seen some good reductions in to 2012.

The Met police definition of Serious Youth Violence is any offence of Most Serious Violence or Weapon Enabled Crime, where the victim is aged 1 to 19

The Met police definition of Youth Violence is any offence of Most Serious Violence and Assault with Injury or Weapon Enabled Crime, where the victim is aged 1 to 19

London Teenage Murders 2005 to 2012

Most Serious Violence: Homicide and Child Destruction, Attempted Murder, Wounding or other act endangering life, Grievous Bodily Harm (Part), Causing Death by Dangerous/Careless/ Inconsiderate Driving, Causing Death by Aggravated Vehicle Taking.

Assault with injury: Actual Bodily Harm and other injury and racially or religiously aggravated ABH and other injury.

Monthly figures on London robbery and London teenage murders from 2007 to 2012 are available on this link

Table of Number of Fatal Stabbings, Shootings and Other fatal wounding for Teenage Murder in London – 2005 to 31st Dec 2012

London Gun Crime Statistics 2006 to 2012

All Teenage Murders in London mapped – 2005 to 2013

All London Murders listed – 2006 to 2013

UK Murders 2011 and 2013 mapped

Under any circumstances these sort of rises would be described as devastatingly bad. Interestingly the lowest increases have been in those areas of London usually regarded as crime hotspots for robbery, such as Lambeth (18.4% increase), Southwark (8.1% increase), Newham (3.5% increase) and Hackney (0.6% increase) recording relatively smaller rises.

source Met Police

Could it be that austerity measures are hitting hardest the safety of residents within those outer London boroughs that were most supportive of the coalition government and the current Mayor of London? Are the policies they have developed in relation to cutting police and downgrading the need for community safety performance now coming home to roost?
Possibly, but not entirely, there has been a general increase of around 100 additional robberies per borough across most of London. This equates to a massive percentage increase in historically low robbery boroughs like Bexley and Harrow but a small increase in higher robbery boroughs like Lambeth and Newham.

But it has always been members of your own community who are most likely to be violent towards you, it doesn’t matter whether you are Black, White or Asian. Data released on murders within England and Wales over the last 3 years (2008 to 2011) confirms that it is White people who are most likely to be killing White people, and that Black on Black murder or Asian on Asian murder is less likely than White on White murders.

Table of Murder Victims Ethnic Appearance against Murder Suspects Ethnic Appearance – Murders from 2008 to 2011

(data is for murder and homicides from 1st April 2008 to end of March 2011 – source Home Office)